Who is going to win the Oscars? – Predictions from Modest Movie

Having seen maybe a tenth of the films nominated for Oscars, I think it’s fair to throw my predictions for the winners into the ring and give all of you a few ideas for your Oscar pools. Let’s do this.

The “Have never seen or heard of these films” Awards:

Best Short Film (Live Action): Wish 143

Why: Through process of elimination. Other nominees include “The Confession” (sounds too dark), “The Crush” (that’s so grade nine), “God of Love” (Academy wants to keep things secular), and “Na Wewe” (worried that presenters won’t be able to pronounce it).

Best Short Film (Animation): “Day and Night”

Why: Because it’s the short that plays before Toy Story 3. It’s also done by Pixar, and they have a pretty good record when it comes to scoring in the animated categories.

Best Documentary (Short Subject): “Killing in the Name.”

Why: It’s a song by Rage Against the Machine, and their works have always been political and challenging. I’m assuming this movie is likely the same way – earning it Oscar gold.

The “Technical” Awards

Best Sound Editing: Inception

Why: Because Inception has been snubbed in most of the other categories (folks, the Best Picture nomination is only included to be polite) it will sweep most of the technical awards that it is nominated for.

Best Sound Mixing: Inception

Why: See above. Also…other nominees include The King’s Speech (what?), Salt (no one saw this), True Grit (possibly..), and The Social Network (no explosions).

Best Visual Effects: Inception

Why: This was a close one. I can really see Harry Potter or Alice in Wonderland taking this, but I think the effects of Inception seem more ground-breaking (i.e. anything in the Paris sequence) while the other two films have wonderful visual effects but they pander to a younger audience.

Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Why: Because it’s nominated against Barney’s Version and The Way Back! This one is rock solid.

Best Film Editing: 127 Hours

Why: I haven’t seen this film (surprise), but I’ve heard that it’s fast-paced and hyper-kinetic, which is tough to do for a film about a guy trapped underneath a rock the entire movie. For that, 127 Hours will probably take the award.

Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech

Why: Because it’s a period piece. And it’s also nominated for twelve awards. It’s going to win at least one of them, and the Academy loves costumes that accurately depict an era.

Best Art Direction: The King’s Speech

Why: It’s another category where Harry Potter or Alice in Wonderland could take it, but I still feel like The King’s Speech has to win at least 5 Oscars this night, so add this one to the tally.

Best Cinematography: Black Swan

Why: Probably a bit of  a long shot, but the dance sequences in Black Swan are incredibly shot, and I like Matthew Libatique’s work (especially since he always does the camera following behind the characters -watch The Wrestler and Black Swan and you’ll see it).

The “Invisible Background Noise” Awards

Best Music (Original Score): The Social Network

Why: Because Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross knocked this one out of the park. I listened to five tracks of the score even before I saw the movie. It’s that good.

Best Music (Original Song): “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3

Why: Because it’s Randy Newman! Side note: I feel like Jackass 3D got snubbed in this category – they have a song during the end credits done by the cast that’s basically saying goodbye to fans and telling everyone that it’s time for them to grow up and stop throwing dildos at one another.

The “Don’t forget about the writers” Awards

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Social Network

Why: It’s written by Aaron Sorkin and makes nerds look cool. It deserves an award just for accomplishing that.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay): The King’s Speech

Why: As much as I want Inception to win, I think everyone (and the Academy) probably realizes that Christopher Nolan is going to be nominated every single year for the next decade, and as such, they’ll award someone else – and the favorite film to win Best Picture is a good bet.

The “These are the reason I’m watching the Oscars” Awards

Best Documentary (Feature): Inside Job

Why: Because it’s about the 2008 financial crisis and by recognizing this movie with an award it ensures that more people will go out to see it and make sure the economy doesn’t go bust again. However, I’m really hoping Exit Through the Gift Shop takes it…because that would be a highlight of the night.

Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3

Why: Pixar. Enough said.

Best Foreign Language Film: Incendies

Why: Canadian pride y’all. I’ve heard great things about this film whereas “Dogtooth” is supposedly quite sexually explicit and uncomfortable while “Biutiful” has had mixed reviews. Don’t know much about the other two nominees though, so it’s anyone’s game.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian Bale

Why: Because Bale has undergone a drastic physical transformation before (losing 60 pounds or so for The Machinist) and here he plays a crack addict. Physical transformation + drug addiction + makeup to make the actor look gaunt or ugly = Oscar.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Melissa Leo

Why: Watch The Fighter. She deserves it.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth

Why: He stutters his way to victory. Plus, it’s a heartwarming underdog tale right?

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman

Why: The film is an emotionally grueling experience, based entirely on Portman’s performance. Few films can make you forget that you’re safe in a theatre seat and this is one of those.

Best Director: David Fincher

Why: It’s about time that Fincher won the best director award (Se7en, Fight Club, and especially Zodiac were all deserving of it) and The Social Network looks like it will be the one to put him on top.

Best Picture: The Social Network

Why: I know, The King’s Speech is the favorite to win. However, the Academy in recent years has chosen the “younger” and edgier films for Best Picture (No Country for Old Men, and The Hurt Locker come to memory), so I’m hoping that The Social Network will be their choice this year. It’s not just the best film of the year, it’s a fantastic portrayal of where we are at right now as a society and I think it’s time that we start recognizing films that show us where we are now than where we used to be (ahem, The King’s Speech). That’s my two cents.

Check back Monday to see how my predictions fared! I’m guessing 40% will be correct…….



One Response to Who is going to win the Oscars? – Predictions from Modest Movie

  1. Julia turnbull says:

    We shall see if you are right- I agree with most of what you are saying.

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